Indian Aviation Industry

Prior to 2008 Indian aviation Industry registered astounding growth rates and grew by 23% YOY, it defied economic meltdown and when giants like Alitalia were struggling to pay their debts, Indian companies were growing by 7-8%. In the midst of this euphoria various private sector players jumped into the bandwagon using both equity and outright purchase of the airlines. Government tried to support this momentum and cleared several greenfield airports which includes impressive and operational airports like IGI at New Delhi, RGIA Hyderabad, Bangalore Airport. some smaller airports were also developed and Indian aviation was all set to fly. 

Fares were coming down, seat occupancy was going up, on certain sectors airlines were competing with backbone of Indian transport i.e. railways and were winning the battle. However in the midst of this fanfare no one realised that despite billion that were being pumped in, aviation infrastructure of the nation wasn't moving ahead. In fact on ground it never moved after 1980's and whatever growth was there, was just on papers. 

Gloom begin to surface after astonishing fake pilot licence scam surfaced and despite political pressure some pilots got punished and scot free and some never got caught, malaise was so deep that some "fake pilots" were flying for more than 15 years and were acting as commanders. 

Second problem which Industry realised very late was that of Air turbine fuel duty, which is a domain of state governments and Union government has no say on that issue. State governments behaved stubbornly or simply ignored the issue as old age politics considers Air travel a luxury, which led to ATF tax rate of as high as 50% , which not only hampered the growth rates but also affected the connectivity and dampened the process of developing ground infrastructure. 

Situation is so bad that in central India, there is no "Active" International airport in a radius of more 600 Km, and it was not until very recently that local government woke up and declared a half built airport an International Airport, from where even first International flight is yet to take off, despite having a population of more than 70 million. and it just case of one pocket, there are several such pockets in the country. This attitude has led to a situation where travelling within the country is more expensive than travelling overseas and in some cases travelling to USA or UK is cheaper compared to travelling within the country. 

Green field projects have only lead to cause more problems as unreasonable usage charges have only helped in increasing fares, in a price sensitive market. Similarly Government has failed to develop proper infrastructure for pilot trainings due to which airlines have to get expensive expat pilots, and in some cases even air hostesses too. Even navigational equipments are old and inefficient due to which flights have to spend more time in air, thus burning more fuel and according to some surveys done by AAI, it is possible to reduce this wastage by 10-15% if government invests in modern navigation equipments. 

India has also failed o develop its own version of regional jets, which despite contradictory reports will be cheaper and easier to maintain and will be able to cater Indian demands better. Unless some of these issues are catered at the earliest I don't find any reason as why Indian carriers will make a profit, they are already flying with more than 75% of occupancy. 

Hence now ball is in governments court and in my view it should 

Reduce ATF duties

provide Tax benefits to airline industry (If government can provide tax holidays to new industries then why not some support to save thousands of jobs, with potential of creating many more)

Limits airport usage charges

develop better feeder network for airports

Support crew training and maintain standards

rationalise its route policy

Else, be ready for days when only Air India will be flying that too won public money, because after Kingfisher now Jet Airways, India's largest private airline is also in red, and same is the case with entire industry including state owned Air India. 

Republic Day Parade: Showpiece of Diplomacy:

Mesmerising sight on 26^th January 2012 at Rajpath that wore the colours of valour, sacrifice and demonstrated the cultural heritage and the Idea we call India. Every passing moment not only made country proud but also demonstrated the success of India’s look east policy and India’s ability to forge strong relations in China’s backyard and through her gestures Prime Minister Shinawatra made it sure that she presents Thailand as a country that shares strong cultural values with India and that relation between two countries are not just about containing China.

If one is to view this development in the light of what president Obama said during his State of the Union address, it becomes clear that America is back in pacific and is ready to play a more active role compared to recent past and it is for India and pacific nations to take as much advantage of this opportunity as possible and India has been making sure that it utilizes this opportunity.

India has been able to sort out the only niggling issue of nuclear trade with Australia and has been steadily moving forward to start nuclear trade with Japan. In order to restore normalcy in North-East India has been able to bring democracy in Burma, thereby opportunity to connect this underdeveloped part of the country with Thailand and rest of the East Asian economy power houses and with a favourable government in Dhaka pace of normalisation in North-East has certainly increased.

Another point that worth notice is the fact that president Obama did mentioned that he won’t take any option off his table but if delve deeper into his address it won’t be hard to realise that he is not willing to go to war “alone” as he wish to build America with the money he will save from Afghanistan and Iraq wars as a result of pull out and provide a much needed relief to American economy and will take world along on this particular issue while at the same time indirectly warning Pakistan of raids like Abottabad.  

In recent times India didn’t shied away from displaying its affection for Afghanistan and invited 22 children to participate in Republic day parade and conveyed a terse message to Islamabad that irrespective of internal dynamics of Pakistan India won’t leave Afghanistan, thus providing giving a much needed relief to the Afghanistan government.

And as dusk sets in, India finds itself all set to shed its image of soft power and ready to fight for its right full place in world order and save and serve its best interests anywhere in the world. It marks the success of the diplomacy of a country which in past had struggled with and had failed to nurture relationships even with natural allies, but that is a past and for now India is all set to begin a new beginning and I see a country that is resurgent and is vibrant. 

Pakistan and its options

After witnessing its own 26/11, unleashed upon it by NATO government of Pakistan has been facing tremendous pressure, with US aid dwindling, worsening global economics scenario and rising capabilities of Afghanistan Army with rapidly increasing Indian support to Afghanistan, Pakistan finds itself completely isolated. Its tactics to pressurise US using NATO supply lines has run out of steam and its support to extremism in Kashmir is all set to backfire as it happened on Afghanistan border where federal government of Pakistan is trying hard to assert its control over its own territory.

Over the past decade Indian army has multiplied its surveillance capabilities and has managed to check infiltration, which has created a tremendous backlog in terror camps across the border, with number of trained terrorists going as high as 15000, and with chronic shortage of basic amenities number of students in madarsas operated by terrorist organisations like Jamat-ud-Dawa & Lashkar-e-Tayaba, soaring to 200,000 making it almost impossible for government to Pakistan to take any action.

In past Pakistan has borne the brunt of the ire of its own creation when it dared to act against lal Masjid concentration and faced severe backlash for months by various organisations like TTP. In past Pakistan survived many do or die situation without actually doing anything, but then it had the US support and Chinese friendship. Now, when US is out of the scene and China over occupied with its own border troubles and North Korea, how much it will be able to support Pakistan is anyone’s guess.

Therefore the only option available to Pakistan is to try and push these terrorists into Indian state and to bring Kashmir back on international scene, from where it has largely disappeared. With 2014 approaching faster than imagined Pakistan can also try to increase tensions with India with not actually going to war but to keep India tied down on its own border, therefore reducing Indian intervention in post NATO Afghanistan and to send these huge number to trained men to Afghanistan to scuttle Afghanistan government exactly the way they did during Soviet invasion, as by that time US might not be willing to stay back in Afghanistan anymore and defeating ill-trained, ill equipped Afghanistan army won’t be that difficult for seasoned ISI.   

Great Game

Prime Minister has announced a three year credit line worth $5 billion, as a follow of earlier credit line of similar amount covering a period of five years. It has been termed as a "Great Game of Africa" and its main players are India, China and USA. It is significantly different from south Asia game currently being played between these three. 

But the play ground and equipments are significantly different from the Af-Pak, where both Afghanistan and Pakistan are the casualty of the game, and India has bore the burnt of this game of an extremely long and tiring period.  These three countries have lost many lives because of the vested interested of America and China, who kept instigating Pakistan, which foolishly followed their instruction.

Pakistan sought strategic depth in Afghanistan, as it doesn't wanted an India friendly government in its neighbour and it was happy with Taliban in the region which it supported vehemently till very recently. It never heeded to a  a simple age old fact that if neighbours house is on fire, even you are in danger. A radicalised and unstable Afghanistan  where Pakistan had a role to play is now cursing its future too. 

To save their chairs, Pakistani politicians kept singing Kashmir tune kept and supporting terrorism in Kashmir, which worked two ways, on one hand it made India a more active, secure, powerful, resolute, aware and united country where as it had only weakened Pakistan in all aspects of life. 

Now, it has no control over its own airspace or its on borders. Its sovereignty is being raped every day by several US drones in the sky and by US commandos and various terrorists on land. Pakistan as a nation has lost its confidence and its way. Its people are suffering from chronic poverty, power cuts and inflation, where as government depends on foreign aid to save itself from getting bankrupt. Its stature and credibility as a nation is at all time low due to which even during its worst floods countries didn't donated as much as they should have. 

As President Obama  said, Pakistan is obsessed with India and it sees everything from India angle only. It has stepped up its nuke programme, it has stepped up its defence spending. In Pakistan Palestine and Kashmir are the main issue whilst they don't care about their own backyard. Palestine and Kashmir are not going to improve the quality of life of an ordinary Pakistani citizen, who needs good education, uninterrupted power supply, drinking water, roads and parks. 

But the  Pakistani politicians and media has filled them with so much of hate and anger on these two issues that people cant even think about these basic amenities and lack of these only fuels anger. Passion for cricket is something which  used to unite the nation, but an attack on visiting team had even taken away that from them, but instead of improving their own deeds, they blamed India for it, which has only increased animosity between the people of these two countries, who otherwise are friendly to each other.  

Coming back to African Game, it is being played using economy and regional development as a tool, instead of using guns and terror and non development as a weapon as is being used in Asia. Pakistan needs to learn something from these African nations who other wise are not very friendly to each other and do have their own differences but they are united and committed for the development of the region and do not intersect each other on these issues. It needs to learn from its past that tall claims doesn't helps in real world, USA used them and they are in trouble because of that "strategic depth" and now they are about to commit same blunder again by submitting themselves to the china. No matter what they claim, but once their goals are fulfilled they will leave Pakistan on its own.

Pakistan needs to understand that China won't support it against India in any direct action because China itself is dealing with too many problems which include Taiwan, Tibet and sustaining communist rule in the country. India and Pakistan have more in common than China and Pakistan have, we two can be two great coexisting countries supporting each other. If India can donate billions to the world, it certainly can help Pakistan during its tough times and better relations with India will result in rapid development of Pakistan. 

All Pakistan needs is to mend its fences with its neighbour

Relations: Complexified

No matter what relations are special, relation with parents, with friends, with teacher with known and with unknown. Each relation brings something new in our life, it fills some part of a jig-saw called life, without which it would have remained incomplete. It brings a lesson to be learnt and love to be share, an emotion to be expressed and a bond to rejoice. 

However, things do not remain same forever, people changes because of changing society, technology, politics, economy and for many more such reasons. Change is inevitable, in fact its only change that is constant to put it in crude words, if you don't change, you will perish, hence change is inbuilt in human genes and that is the only fact which has brought us here where today we stands as humans, and that shall not change. 

But, there are relations who we trust more than we depend on ourselves, we need more than we need oxygen, when people involved in such relation changes, truth becomes so ugly, that we want to ignore it, to forget it to decide to believe and live in past. We tend to force our wishes and expects them to be respected and feels greatly hurt when truth comes out to be a sourer than we imagined. 

Why it happens, why we feel hurt, despite knowing the fact that some got to change some day, that its not impossible to live without anyone and that no matter what life goes on. Why we tend to blur those facts and highlight what we were trying to suppress as a nightmare, that actually wasn't a nightmare but a truth standing naked in broad day light 

Is it because we have invested so much in a relation that we fear to be emotionally bankrupt if we lose that specific relation, or is it because we depend so much on that that we tend to forget that there are several other relations exists in our live too. 

Is it because our pride hurts when someone changes against our wishes

Is it because we feel cheated because someone has changes though we had expected that one not to change

Is it because we are being an emotional fool

In my view third and last point should suffice to say it all. In our country where we brought up in an environment of respecting each and every relation no matter how insignificant that is, we are supposed to maintain it and that develops a tendency within to keep relations but it doesn't taught us how to do that. 

It makes us a semi robot when it comes to relation and expect us only to respect, but never told us what to do when ignored. 

This brings a self learned style to deal with those questions, few adopts anger to suppress their feelings, few hide in tears, few seek solace in lamenting themselves for their actions and few do the bigger sin and leave this world well before living their life, off-course all of this is wrong and no matter what cannot be termed right, no matter supported by what argument these reactions do not have a place in the life of any sensible human being. 

The, few would ask what should one do when hurt, well I'm no doctor or any relationship expert. But I an tell what I do, I adopt a simple line "I'm fine". Because I know what ever has happened has a reason and there is no point in taking a relationship until I get that reason and there is no point in lamenting, or being angry or crying without knowing that reason. Because unless I know that "Change Agent", I doesn't matter what I do, relations are not going to change. 

Its not about "who's" fault, but its about failing at spotting the change and being disappointed when all of a sudden finding it right on the top of the head and it should be understood that its a mutual failure. 

Nothing's gonna change unless you yourself adopt to that change, and to do so you need to learn, learn by your actions and by the action of others, and that's the only way you can manage to bring life back in your life, else each and every time you will end-up hurting yourself. 

There is no point in over committing yourself, there is not point in over ego, over anger or anything that is above accepted limits and there is no point in forcing your habits down someone else's throat and threatening him otherwise. There is no point in "trying" or in pretending that you are trying to save a relation, because other are human too and they can spot your ego and your anger very well, thus unless you don't have enough fire to save a relation you should not try to do so. 

one needs to change with time, with relations and that's the only way to have good relation till eternity and the last and the most important point is to respect someone else's decisions, to understand his point of view and his thinking that has went behind a decision, and rest assure if you succeed in doing so, you won't find yourself hurt again. 

Have a happy life... 

It's Just another page: Dot Com Boom again

It's Just another page: Dot Com Boom again: "LinkedIn couldn't have imagined a better welcome to the market, but as the dusk approached there were whispers all around. Analysts were sk..."

Dot Com Boom again

LinkedIn couldn't have imagined a better welcome to the market, but as the dusk approached there were whispers all around. Analysts were skeptical and were playing safe, none of them came out bold and said whether this is the start of another dot com boom. whether it will stay, whether it will go up or will falter, no one had the answer.

But if we had to compare  90's boom with the recent incident, I would say Linkedin is here to stay. Linkedin 
and most other companies coming to market in near future are well equipped and cannot be compared to many of the websites developed on impractical ideas developed in 90's which were the main cause of the dot com bubble. Even from that time many web companies like Yahoo, MSN and Naukri.com from India survived the tsunami which destroyed entire silicon valley.

Companies like Linkedin and Facebook enjoys first mover advantage, they have users trust, mass user base and most importantly they have got data. Which provides them a great insight of the trend and makes them more flexible. These companies may have been started by enthusiasts in dorms, but are run by professionals.

These companies knows their limitations and there punches extremely well, these companies are not and cannot be compared to the companies of earlier decade as these companies enjoy resources that they can't even have dreamt of.

Increasing broadband penetration and increasing cost of man power will become fortune for these companies and web is an addiction in itself and these guys knows it extremely well.

If I had to put million dollars in Linkedin, I would have done so without any second thought. Though there possibilities that something like twitter or facebook may pop up from somewhere destroy facebook kingdom in a matter of minutes, but I would say these kingdoms are too big to fall. Even if you consider the fall of Orkut in India, though Facebook has took away its sheen but it still has a huge base and will die an extremely slow death unless Google resurrects it and supports it in full strength.

So, when it comes to dot com.....Invest invest invest